Originally this post should be in tomorrow (Monday), written before the market opened, because the mainland to travel with my friends to leave Australia in the morning to go off at the airport, the article ahead of time logged.
Early gains were relatively large, the accumulation of a certain amount of systemic risk, A-share market valuations have significantly improved the short term for the callback is normal. but this form of adjustment or adjustments are relative, adjust the time estimated 4 weeks or less, that is, 5, an adjustment will occur in mid and late low, and then suggests to start a new round of upward, the first goal of 3000 points. For the above estimates, we must clarify two points, first, in 2009 throughout the year, the callback is sub-trend, but also because the world situation is less clear, market forces will always be adjusted in order to take the opportunity to achieve the purpose of defrauding chips; the second, but because the end of 2008 China's economy has been sinking to the bottom, from now to coming a very long period of time, I'm very optimistic about China's economy, thus reflecting the barometer of China's economic rise in China's stock market will have become a major trend. can be said that each time the callback is to a greater increase in the future.
for this adjustment, I think the rate will be slightly longer time, possibly the next big move is the last before the arrival of strategic Xipan trend. the main use of this adjustment is possible to create an atmosphere of depression, since the beginning of one hand washing profit chips; the other hand, when you deliberately hit IPO price speculation for the future layout of new shares. This adjustment will be before the arrival of a new bull market Jiancang strategic opportunities, the better approach is the long-term funding opportunities. < br> To find the reasons for the current stage is not difficult to build the top, such as from high to low liquidity, valuation beyond a reasonable limit supply and demand of capital and may face reversal of chips, such as expected future economic situation. but we still have to search for future which will exceed expectations. one of the reasons which may come from the current time. from 2009 to 6.1% in the first quarter started, I expect the fourth quarter of China's economic growth will exceed 9% over the year to achieve 8% growth. April 2009, the Chinese economy has bottomed out and started standing on the starting point of pick up, after at least six months, economic data chain is to determine the right direction, and leading economic indicators signal the worst phase of the Chinese economy has in the past, from 3 situation in January, the overall economic situation in line with expectations, so I have V-shaped rebound in China's economic confidence.
investment in the 1-February 26.5% of the urban fixed asset investment growth has surprised the market, in March and further accelerated to 30.3% is surprising. I believe that the investment growth rate higher than 25% of the momentum can continue in the second quarter. Currently, the market for full-year 2009 consensus estimates of investment growth is less than 20%, there continue to increase the possibility of the valuation of investment goods which will provide new space, such as construction machinery, cement, and steel.
the export side, the medium term, China's exports in the third quarter, supported by access to power cycle . I expect the U.S. and Europe year on year decline in developed economies, Japan is expected to show in the next three quarters, gradually narrowing trend, because China's export growth rate of GDP in developed economies, synchronous relationship between the growth rate year on year, because I think In the next two or three quarters, China's exports year on year decline in the country will show the convergence of the situation constantly. This means that container transport (shipping and ports), paper, electronics, textiles, garments, home appliances repair industry, there is the valuation needs.
market is expected to turn to the broader market share market style structural adjustment in the 2579 high point of this began even before the recent small-cap stocks began to appear daily limit is the theme of the first signal. Since last November the five months since time, small-cap stocks to large cap gains accumulated more than 2 times, and accumulated a lot of excess return, small cap stocks relative valuation advantage has been lost, so small-cap stocks in terms of valuation or the terms of the cumulative gains have been to the point to be adjusted. Meanwhile, blue chips began to stir, the recent oil and petrochemical, aviation, shipping, electricity and other sections appear at the bottom of heavy volume stocks are strong indications that small cap stocks and large cap stocks have begun to transform the style in the next 1 months, heat will tend to decline in small-cap stocks, large cap stocks would tend to heat up, the recent large-cap stocks are only active in warm-up phase. We believe that in this round of adjustment is completed, the market rally in the next round of a major hot spot plates will shift to large cap stocks.
conclusion: 2009 is to produce the best year of asset bubbles, each drop is a buying opportunity. the needs of the market to adjust, the adjustment of the market direction will be structural, may occur between the small-cap stocks and large cap style rotation. This adjustment is not only a technical breakthrough in the line after the pullback, while the overall rebound this year is more of an adjustment. from the adjustment point of view, the market There may be about 100 points shortly after the space; and may take a long look from time to time. Overall, this adjustment may be the next big move is the last before the arrival of a long suppressed Xipan. Therefore, Investors need to make quasi-ideological.
investment strategy, focusing on holdings of financial services, machinery and real estate. Please close attention to trends in the Fund's position. financial stocks has always been the preferred configuration is to fund and focus. In the second half of 2008 after After the collective holdings of financial stocks in the first quarter of 2009, won the Fund's heart again. According to Wind statistics, as of the end of the first quarter, the Fund held the market value of the financial and insurance reached 286.2 billion yuan, the proportion of their positions from last year 10.98%, up to the current 16.28%, up 5.3%. highest in the industry's top. from their point of view the specific holdings of the species, Bank of first place. As of the end of March, heavily loaded with the number of funds held by the Bank of Communications 12 by the end of last year soared to 40, the number of shares increased by 626.9 million shares, reaching 959 million shares. SDB followed by A, the Fund's largest holding in the first quarter from Number 33 home rose to 71, the number of shares rose to 3.7 billion shares. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000), Industrial Bank (601166), Bank of Beijing (601169) and other banks are also focused on by the Fund.
and brokerage CITIC Securities, In the first quarter of the number of the Fund's holdings from the crazy 99 to 160, the number of shares increased by 3 million shares. insurance stocks in the China Pacific Insurance (601,601) and Ping (601,318) are also in the first quarter suffered greatly eat into funds. data, key holdings in the fund in the top ten stocks, financial stocks accounted for one of the 8 seats.
addition to financial stocks, the real estate stocks also substantial holdings of the Fund's situation. According to Wind statistics show, the fund's position in the real estate industry last year increased from 3.68% to 5.19%. particularly Huafa and Poly Real Estate was a large proportion of the Fund's holdings, the number of holdings are more than 1.2 million shares. In addition, the OCT A, Vanke A and construction of shares (600,153) and other property stocks also re-ranked the Fund's top ten Awkwardness.
In addition, the data also show that the face of machine industry and metal and nonmetal industries, funds are also slightly overweight. Fund position machinery and equipment industry increased from 6.84% early rise to 8.7%. metals, non-metallic industry over the same period increased from 3.58% to 5.15%. Sany Heavy Industry (600031), in conjunction Heavy Division (000157) and HTC shares (600,331) the number of such stocks funds holdings are a few.
significantly eat into the fund of financial stocks, the fund's largest holding is still the top twenty largest Awkwardness there are no small changes. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, CITIC Securities, Industrial Bank and other financial stocks ahead of the ranking significantly. It should be noted that the Fund before the end of the first quarter of Awkwardness appeared Twenty four , Poly Real Estate, Yangtze Power (600900) and Bank of Communications. especially the deep development of A, the Fund largest holding in the first quarter of the number of shares of the home rose from 33 to 71, the number of shares rose to 3.7 billion shares, making the shares among the funds not only smooth the ranks of the top twenty largest Awkwardness. In addition, late last year also came in 50 away the Bank of Communications, the end of the first quarter of 2009, the Fund has also entered the top twenty of the last train.
I are tight concerned about their largest holding of the Industrial Bank (601100) Annual Report 2008 and 2009 quarterly and sent to dividends (announced on 28th of this month.
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