Entertainment real estate market has long been known to do. Basically, most of the real estate forum will be songs and dances, entertainment, extreme, in order to show the housing market boom and generosity. Moreover, the real estate market not only for the majority of entertainment real estate forum, also showed sales of real estate developers and real estate issues on the discussion. The former do not form, but said the latter. For example, the beginning of this year's real estate market adjustments, some people came out and said, China hundred days there will be the real estate market changes, that is, within the hundred days of the time much of the domestic real estate enterprises and over can not be eliminated hundred days off. Recently, some things like the self-proclaimed Some people came out and said, changes that real estate has bottomed out, that No matter how entertaining discussion of the real estate market, the fundamental matter is nothing less than the two aspects, one would like to tell the Government how important the real estate market is, how difficult the current real estate market is, if the government does not put the appropriate policies, How the real estate market will face great danger, and this is dangerous and how to be harmful to the national economic and financial security; second is to tell people, how the real estate markets, and if people do not take the opportunity to enter this market, it will lose their opportunity. and this is simply more entertainment-oriented real estate real estate developer benefit of the dictates. But in fact, such a rapidly changing real estate market really? If so, not only with the characteristics of the real estate market does not in itself compliance, but also the experience with other countries and do not meet the real estate policy.
general, real estate is a cyclical long industrial production. get to the final product from the land sales generally have experienced a few years . Therefore, the real estate boom cycle from one to another boom cycle will experience nearly a decade. For example, the United States to a recent real estate market experienced a boom time for the past 8 years, and the adjustment of the real estate market from 2006 began to have experienced more than two years, but this time adjust the end to what so far remains unknown. In China, reform of housing system from the beginning of 1998, the real estate market has experienced nearly a decade prosperity. can be said that the prosperity of China's real estate market reform, if not overflow factor, the real estate market boom to last so long is basically impossible. Since the housing boom can last for years, then the domestic the real estate market adjustment in the short term is impossible to complete. What's more, the Chinese real estate market is basically the policy of the city, the government is through the real estate policy to correct the current real estate market means unreasonable, such as real estate products and a small area of middle and low, the real estate market, people's livelihood and so on. and this policy change will make the real estate market is more prolonged period of adjustment. Since the development of the real estate market is a cyclical market longer, so any man-made way to interrupt this cyclical real estate market development or prevent such adjustment of the real estate market, the real estate market, it should be a huge disaster, and the resulting negative impact on who can not be underestimated.
Well, the Chinese real estate market is cyclical Why is there such a big adjustment? not only because the real estate market itself dictates, but also that the purpose of government real estate policy reorientation. For the former, given past national land policy, real estate market policies and real estate credit management policy shortcomings, making the domestic real estate market two serious problems. First, the real estate is too high, rising too fast, which makes 80% of the domestic capacity to pay more than residents do not enter the real estate market. such as said that housing prices in Shenzhen City in 2004 compared with only 6.52 times income, while in 2006, about 2007, soared to 15.76 times, 20 times or more. Shanghai, Beijing central area housing prices to income ratio reached 30 times or even and 50 times more. Also, the country quickly soaring house prices in general. For example, the average house price in Beijing in 2004 was only 5,050 yuan / square meter, while the average house price in 2007, the city went up to 14,000 yuan / square meter, up three times. Beijing is so true in many parts of the country. In other words, when the big national real estate market bubble, the real estate market readjustment is inevitable, who can change things. The second is the right person through the room real estate market in the short term the wealth of the whole community gathered in a small number of staff, which by the real estate market in the manufacture of a serious unfair distribution of social income, tearing through the real estate market in the whole community of ethnic relations and create social contradictions and conflicts, through the real estate serious damage to the market a few years the Chinese Communist Party established the authority of the general public and so on. If this problem is not addressed, not only a harmonious society can not be resolved, and the whole social conflicts and contradictions will become increasingly serious. Therefore, in this sense, domestic real estate market readjustment is inevitable. As a major adjustment to the real estate market, then this adjustment can be completed in a short period of time it? impossible.
As long the real estate market is a cyclical industry It can not be adjusted periodically to complete in the near future. From a policy perspective, the real estate market policy effects need a longer period. For example, the U.S. real estate market boom 8 years, 6 2004 May start to August 2006, the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 17 to adjust the real estate market bubble, but the U.S. real estate market until the bubble began in March 2007 burst, very recent U.S. banking crisis. And the U.S. housing real estate market bubble burst in the impact, when the U.S. housing market adjustment is simply not the end of the timetable so far. Let's look at China, the real estate policy impact on the market also has a fairly long lag. such as the six countries in 2006 hard constraints to technical requirements of production more than 70% below 90 square meters of housing policy, until two years later revealed only recently that effect. then the government announced a 24-second half of 2007 documents, 359 documents, 452 documents 64 and 39 orders and other documents, these policies and documents the effect of the adjustment is also need for a longer period of time can show the effect of policies. The effect of this policy in order to disappear in the short term, unless the cancellation of these policies. < br> And these policies are not only technical, but in principle, through re-establishment of these policies of the Chinese real estate market development purposes, to adjust the real estate market development models and business model, the real estate market needs to adjust the principal, to rectify the real estate development order, and to regulate the real estate market behavior, and these things can in principle be completed in the near future? It is completely impossible. For example, to redefine the real estate market for the livelihood of the people for the market, the real estate market investment and consumption and to take strict distinction between the different policies. These things can be done in the short term? Yes, these things can not be completed in the short term, and once to such a policy in-depth market, then The market will look very different. This change is who can not come to resist. It is this sense, the domestic real estate market correction, prices reasonable return is only the beginning, because the real estate policy should just show a little effect.
Recently, a real estate developer believes that the current real estate market has been facing problems, such funds will face a broken chain, rapid decline in housing sales, the problem is that the Government adopt a tight monetary policy, the problem is that these policies are unfair to the real estate industry, particularly government policies to suppress the real estate market. For example, commercial banks have been a few months to stop lending to real estate developers. In fact, there are several issues here, one tight monetary policy is the same for any business, why should not other sectors of the real estate industry from the tight tight, not to mention the behavior of commercial banks which are government intervention simply do not have much power; second is from the National Bureau of Statistics data, in fact since 2008 the tight monetary policy on the real estate market is not tight, the banking system into the real estate finance companies did not decrease, but the domestic real estate market is to allow management of bank credit scientific norms and personal housing mortgage loans decreased. But why do this after the credit management practices will lead to the domestic real estate market with falling prices and reduction of personal housing mortgage loans? One reason is that earlier speculation of real estate market is a market The speculation is that the housing market Scoop heaven lies in the personal housing mortgage loan market access for non-credit management policy, scientific norms.
But do not say that the previous documents on real estate credit management, even Document No. 359 of 2007 on the adjustment of real estate credit management policy, personal housing mortgage loans on the domestic policy remains the world's most liberal. This easy not only for personal mortgage loans outside of government preferential policies (such as the proportion of down payment and preferential lending rates), but also by the low standard for the market access (such as on individual mortgage loans in many countries is the household disposable income payments 28-35%, while China has reached 50%), showed potential in these markets into the scrutiny is lax. especially the state-led governance structure is not sound in the interests of domestic commercial banks, driven by short-term operations in order to compete more appropriate standards will be relaxed. For example, the second housing mortgage loans, the central bank has long been clearly defined, but many commercial banks that continue to break through this provision.
particular, the recent domestic real estate market in the government's real estate policy, driven by the price of the real estate market in some places just slowly return to reason and saw this situation, the domestic real estate enterprises and some scholars to believe that China's real estate market price can not be dropped. If the real estate market, prices fell, the government must introduce policies to save the city. because, if the Government does not save the market introduction of the real estate market profits of enterprises can not be maintained, the real estate developers can not the Chinese people in the short term the huge transfer of wealth to real estate developers hands. However, they aim to achieve often take the name of the public interest to cover. What price can not fall, or if house prices fall it will affect national economic security, it will affect the wealth of domestic residents hold in, domestic banks will collapse and so on. but in fact All questions revolve around the real estate business does not change the target profits.
recent credit rating in the United States that clearly, the legal sound, well-developed financial market system case, because the real estate credit management, mortgage loans have led to a U.S. financial system and banking crisis, then in the case of China, the real estate credit risks greater. If the Chinese government does not have a clear mind on this, but let the real estate developers to blackmail, come around, then the Chinese real estate credit and will certainly lead to greater financial risk. In particular, the recent domestic real estate developers want to market through a variety of ways around, come around the Government's policy, the Government should this more vigilant.
Also, real estate developers not to say that the real estate market has been out of the cyclical problem? real estate market such as the 2007, as prices will soar and profits of real estate companies will from the sky fall coming? In fact, if so, it will be very simple. In this case, the real estate developers simply do not want the government to rescue the city or the government to change the current real estate market policy, as long as my own hands house saved up, who hoard much chance of huge profits the more time until housing prices come back sales. such as Shanghai, as a real estate, not selling a few years, but soaring real estate market quickly. If this property companies there will be risks? That is why the overwhelming majority of real estate developers now prefer not to sell nor a set of fundamental price.
In short, the real estate market price adjustment is only the beginning, who wants to hold fantasy the miracle will occur in 2007, it was just the Earth game. because the party's seventh report of the basic spirit of the housing, the government work report this year, the basic task of real estate, and since 2007 on real estate documents are that the Chinese real estate market will change dramatically, and this change will be long term. Thus, the domestic real estate market will be a long process of adjustment. No one can change this situation, unless they want to fight against the party's ten Seven basic spirit of the report.
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